The prediction of financial distress that lead to bankruptcy and its influence on share price on manufacturing companies listed in IDX by Altman Z Score measurement

Halim, Erica (2020) The prediction of financial distress that lead to bankruptcy and its influence on share price on manufacturing companies listed in IDX by Altman Z Score measurement. Bachelor thesis, Universitas Pelita Harapan.

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Abstract

A company's goal is to gain profit and well in term of performance. If the company's financial decreases continuously then the company is worried about going bankrupt. One of the methods of bankruptcy prediction that can be used is bankruptcy analysis with the method of Altman Z-score. This research aims to determine if the analysis of the Altman Z-score method can predict bankruptcy in manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange (Bursa Efek Indonesia) in 2016-2018. This research uses secondary data that is based on the financial statements of manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (Bursa Efek Indonesia) in 2016-2018. The population of this research is a manufacturing company listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (Bursa Efek Indonesia) in 2016- 2018, where the population is as much as 76 companies. Sampling using purposive sampling method with the acquisition of 29 samples of companies. The results of this research show that (1) the Altman Z-Score method can be used to predict the bankruptcy on manufacturing companies listed in IDX during 2016-2018.(2) Altman Z-Score, represented by Working Capital to Total Assets, Retained Earnings to Total Assets, Earnings before Interest and Taxes to Total Assets, Market Value of Equity to Book Value of Total debt and Sales to Total Assets; partially and simultaneously do not have a significant impact towards share price. Altman Z-Score affect significantly towards the share price on manufacturing companies listed in IDX during 2016-2018./ Tujuan perusahaan adalah memperoleh profit dan memiliki performa yang baik. Apabila kinerja keuangan perusahaan menurun terus menerus maka di khawatirkan perusahaan akan mengalami kebangkrutan. Salah satu metode prediksi kebangkrutan yang dapat digunakan adalah analisis kebangkrutan dengan metode Altman Z-score. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui apakah analisis metode Altman Z-score dapat memprediksi kebangkrutan dan pengaruh metode Altman Z-score terhadap harga saham pada perusahaan manufaktur yang terdaftar pada bursa efek indonesia pada periode 2016-2018. Penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder yang berdasarkan pada laporan keuangan perusahaan manufaktur yang terdaftar pada Bursa Efek Indonesia periode tahun 2016-2018. Populasi penelitian ini merupakan perusahaan manufaktur yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonsia pada tahun 2016-2018, dimana jumlah populasi sebanyak 76 perusahaan. Pengambilan sampel menggunakan metode purposive sampling dengan perolehan 29 sampel perusahaan. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa (1)analisis metode altman Z-Score dapat memprediksi kebangkrutan pada perusahaan manufaktur yang terdaftar pada Bursa Efek Indonesia periode tahun 2016-2018.(2) Altman Z-Score diwakilkan oleh rasio modal kerja terhadap total aktiva, laba ditahan terhadap total aktiva, laba sebelum bunga dan pajak terhadap total aktiva, nilai pasar modal saham terhadap nilai buku hutang, dan rasio penjualan terhadap total aktiva; secara parsial dan secara simultan tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap harga saham. Altman Z-score berpengaruh signifikan terhadap harga saham pada perusahaan manufaktur yang terdaftar di bursa efek Indonesia tahun 2016-2018.

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