Perhitungan premi dan cadangan asuransi untuk epidemi hiv/aids = Premium and reserves calculation for hiv/aids epidemics insurance

Nugroho, Debby (2019) Perhitungan premi dan cadangan asuransi untuk epidemi hiv/aids = Premium and reserves calculation for hiv/aids epidemics insurance. Bachelor thesis, Universitas Pelita Harapan.

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Abstract

Permasalahan epidemi HIV/AIDS yang tak kunjung selesai dan fatalnya efek yang ditimbulkan, telah membangkitkan kembali minat dalam studi epidemi. Pemodelan epidemi secara matematika selama ini telah menjadi alat penting dalam menganalisa dinamika transmisi penularan infeksi penyakit. Namun, hampir seluruh penelitian tentang epidemi dalam literatur aktuaria hanya sejauh menentukan model epidemiologi yang sesuai. Oleh karena itu, untuk menghubungkan model epidemiologi dengan aktuaria, kami menganalisa kemungkinan pengelolaan keuangan untuk menghadapi resiko biaya perawatan medis yang diperlukan oleh pemegang asuransi yang terinfeksi HIV/AIDS. Pada penelitian ini, data yang digunakan adalah data infeksi HIV dan kematian akibat AIDS. Menggunakan data-data ini, peluang infeksi HIV, peluang hidup seseorang yang telah terinfeksi HIV, dan peluang kematian akibat AIDS dapat dihitung. Nilai-nilai peluang yang diperoleh digunakan untuk mencari ekspektasi penerimaan premi dan pembayaran manfaat asuransi. Kedua hal ini berguna untuk menghitung premi dan cadangan asuransi yang merupakan tujuan akhir dari penelitian ini. Oleh karena kita mencari nilai premi dan cadangan asuransi untuk beberapa tahun ke depan, maka perlu dilakukan forecast pada data-data yang dimiliki. Ada dua metode forecast yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini, yaitu metode time series dengan Exponential Triple Smoothing dan metode penyelesaian sistem Persamaan Diferensial Biasa (PDB) dari model epidemi HIV/AIDS. Masing-masing metode memiliki kelebihan dan kekurangannya masing-masing. / Prolonged HIV/AIDS epidemic problems and its fatal effects, have increased interest in epidemic studies. Mathematical epidemic modeling has become an important tool in analyzing the transmission of infectious diseases. However, almost all studies on epidemics in the actuarial literature only go beyond determining appropriate epidemiological models. Therefore, to link the epidemiological model with actuarial studies, we analyze the possibility of financial management to overcome the risk of medical care costs required by policyholders infected with HIV/AIDS. In this study, we used data on HIV infection and AIDS-related deaths. Using these data, we can calculate the probability of HIV infection, survival probability of someone who has been infected with HIV, and the probability of death from AIDS. These probabilities are used to look for expectations of premium receipts and payment of insurance benefits. Both of these values are useful for calculating premiums and reserves which are the ultimate goals of this study. Because we are looking for premium and reserves for the next few years, it is necessary to forecast the data owned. There are two forecast methods used in this study, namely the time series method with Exponential Triple Smoothing and the method of solving the system of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODE) from the HIV/AIDS epidemic model. Each method has its own advantages and disadvantages.

Item Type: Thesis (Bachelor)
Creators:
CreatorsNIMEmail
Nugroho, DebbyNIM00000015109UNSPECIFIED
Contributors:
ContributionContributorsNIDN/NIDKEmail
Thesis advisorMargaretha, HelenaNIDN0312057504helena.margaretha@uph.edu
Thesis advisorSaputra, Kie Van IvankyNIDN0401038203kie.saputra@uph.edu
Additional Information: SK 112-15 NUG p 2019; 31001000244625
Uncontrolled Keywords: SIR model; epidemics and insurance; HIV/AIDS insurance
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Divisions: University Subject > Current > Faculty/School - UPH Karawaci > Faculty of Science and Technology > Mathematics
Current > Faculty/School - UPH Karawaci > Faculty of Science and Technology > Mathematics
Depositing User: Users 3 not found.
Date Deposited: 10 Nov 2020 04:41
Last Modified: 31 Oct 2023 03:43
URI: http://repository.uph.edu/id/eprint/12118

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