Penerapan uji kointegrasi antara inflasi dan properti hunian di Indonesia = The Application of Cointegration Test between Inflation and Residential Property in Indonesia

Jason, Benedictus (2018) Penerapan uji kointegrasi antara inflasi dan properti hunian di Indonesia = The Application of Cointegration Test between Inflation and Residential Property in Indonesia. Bachelor thesis, Universitas Pelita Harapan.

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Abstract

Di Indonesia, kebutuhan terhadap properti hunian semakin meningkat seiring dengan banyaknya generasi muda yang akan membeli hunian untuk pertama kalinya. Investasi telah dilakukan untuk mencegah penurunan nilai uang akibat inflasi. Salah satunya adalah dengan berinvestasi di properti hunian. Pada penelitian ini, akan diuji kemampuan properti hunian berukuran kecil, sedang dan besar untuk mencegah kerugian akibat inflasi aktual, inflasi yang diharapkan dan inflasi yang tidak diharapkan. Data yang digunakan adalah data inflasi dari 2005 sampai dengan 2017 dan data kenaikan indeks harga properti hunian dari tahun 2005 sampai dengan 2017 yang di dapat dari www.bi.go.id. Secara empiris, penelitian diberbagai negara menunjukkan bahwa properti hunian dapat mencegah kerugian akibat inflasi. Pada penelitian ini, Autoregressive Distributive Lags Cointegration Test akan digunakan untuk menguji kointegrasi antara properti hunian dan inflasi sehingga dapat disimpulkan apakah properti hunian di Indonesia dapat mencegah kerugian akibat inflasi. Dari hasil uji kointegrasi yang didapatkan, hanya properti hunian berukuran besar yang dapat mencegah kerugian akibat inflasi yang tidak diharapkan, sedangkan untuk inflasi aktual dan inflasi yang diharapkan, properti hunian tidak dapat mencegah kerugian yang diakibatkan oleh kedua variable inflasi tersebut. Properti hunian berukuran kecil dan sedang tidak dapat mencegah kerugian akibat inflasi yang diakibatkan oleh ketiga variabel inflasi. / In Indonesia, demands for residential property are increasing as more younger generations are looking for their first home. Investment has been used to hedge inflation. One is by investing in residential property. This research will examines the ability of small, medium and large sized residential properties to hedge actual inflation, expected inflation, and unexpected inflation. The data used are rate of inflation from year 2005 to 2017 and residential property price index from year 2005 to 2017 which acquired from www.bi.go.id. Empirically, researches in many countries show that residential property can hedge inflation. In this research, Autoregressive Distributive Lags Cointegration Test will be used to examine the cointegration between residential property prices and inflation which then can be concluded whether residential property can hedge inflation. The Result from cointegration test show that large sized residential properties can hedge unexpected inflation, while for actual inflation and unexpected inflation, residential properties can’t hedge both inflation. Small and medium sized residential properties can’t hedge all three inflation variable.

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