Perbandingan prediksi harga emas dan aktual dengan analisa simple moving average

Jonatan, Javier (2021) Perbandingan prediksi harga emas dan aktual dengan analisa simple moving average. Bachelor thesis, Universitas Pelita Harapan.

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Abstract

Emas merupakan salah satu investasi yang sangat disenangi karena nilainya hampir tidak pernah berkurang dan tergolong cukup liquid. Setiap orang yang akan melakukan investasi pasti akan berpikir terlebih dahulu kelebihan serta kekurangan masing-masing investasi. Pada penelitian ini, poin-poin yang diuraikan yaitu dunia pasar emas, investasi emas dan cara memprediksi harga emas di masa depan. Pengumpulan data dilakukan dengan cara studi pustaka dan data historis. Data penelitian yang diambil adalah data 10 tahun terakhir sehingga dinilai masih layak untuk penelitian. Percobaan yang dilakukan untuk membandingkan data yaitu melakukan opersai Simple Moving Average untuk menghitung perubahan harga emas. Kemudian melakukan prediksi harga dan membandingkan hasil prediksi dengan nilai data asli. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian dapat dibuktikan bahwa harga emas pada masa depan bisa diprediksi dengan metode moving average. Pada data set 2010 Juni – Mei 2020 memiliki persentase error prediksi sebanyak 11.69%. Data tersebut dinilai masih relevan digunakan untuk melakukan prediksi 5 tahun ke depan karena sangat mendekati kategori sangat akurat yaitu persentase error <10%./Gold is one of the most preferred investments because its value almost never decreases and is quite liquid. Everyone who is going to invest will definitely think in advance of the advantages and disadvantages of each investment. In this study, the points described are the world of the gold market, gold investment and how to predict the future price of gold. Data collection is done by means of literature study and historical data. The research data taken is data from the last 10 years so it is still considered feasible for research. The experiment was carried out to compare the data, namely performing the Simple Moving Average operation to calculate changes in gold prices. Then make price predictions and compare the prediction results with the original data value. Based on the results of the study, it can be proven that the price of gold in the future can be predicted using the moving average method. The 2010 data set June – May 2020 has a prediction error percentage of 11.69%. The data is considered still relevant to be used to make predictions for the next 5 years because it is very close to the very accurate category, namely the error percentage <10%.

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