Analisis dinamika penyebaran demam berdarah di Asia Pasifik = Analysis of dengue distribution dynamics in Asia Pasific region

Arissaputri, Regina (2021) Analisis dinamika penyebaran demam berdarah di Asia Pasifik = Analysis of dengue distribution dynamics in Asia Pasific region. Bachelor thesis, Universitas Pelita Harapan.

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Abstract

Negara bagian Asia Pasifik merupakan daerah rentan terkena wabah demam berdarah oleh karena banyaknya negara-negara yang endemik demam berdarah. Demam berdarah merupakan penyakit viremik dengan vektor perantara nyamuk Aedes aegypti dan Aedes albopictus yang umum terjadi di daerah tropis dan sub-tropis, dan merupakan salah satu penyakit penyebab utama mortalitas pada anak-anak. Oleh karena itu penting untuk dilakukan pemantauan secara berkala terhadap dinamika penyebaran demam berdarah di Asia Pasifik. Analisis korelasi spasial dengan korelogram menunjukkan adanya dependensi nilai incidence rate demam berdarah dari pasangan negara acak terhadap jarak kedua negara tersebut, namun nilai maksimum jarak yang berpengaruh terhadap similaritas data tidak konsisten selama periode penelitian. Analisis Local Indicator of Spatial Association (LISA) berdasarkan Moran’s I lokal dilakukan terhadap kasus demam berdarah di Asia-Pasifik. Analisis tersebut menunjukkan negara Asia Tenggara yaitu Kamboja, Laos, Malaysia, Singapura, Thailand, dan Vietnam merupakan episentrum penyebaran demam berdarah di Asia-Pasifik. Model prediksi dinamika jumlah kasus tiap negara tersebut dibuat dengan menggunakan regresi GLM Poisson untuk menganalisis faktor-faktor yang diduga memiliki pengaruh terhadap demam berdarah. Faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi jumlah kasus demam berdarah terdiri dari faktor sosioekonomik dan demografi, urbanisasi, sejarah infeksi penyakit dengan vektor nyamuk lainnya, dan iklim. Faktor ENSO juga memengaruhi kasus demam berdarah namun mekanisme pengaruh tersebut tidak konsisten untuk setiap negara. Model regresi yang terbentuk dapat mencangkup trend dari dinamika jumlah kasus demam berdarah di negara-negara yang diamati dengan cukup baik. \ The Asia Pacific region is especially susceptible of dengue outbreaks due to the endemicity of the disease in several countries of the region. Dengue is a viremic disease that is facilitated by a mosquito vector A. aegypti and A. albopictus which often thrive in tropical and sub-tropical climate. Dengue is one of the main leading causes of child mortality rate globally. Hence, the periodic monitoring of this disease’s dynamics is crucial for mitigating the risk of dengue outbreak. Spatial correlation analysis with correlogram shows a dependency for the incidence rate of two randomly paired country with their distance. Maximum distance in which there is an association between distance and IR similarity is not consistent across the analysis period. Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) analysis based on Local Moran’s I is done to identify clusters of dengue incidence. This analysis shows that the epicentrum of dengue transmission tends to happen in South East Asia, specifically Cambodia, Lao’s PDR, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. Prediction model is made with GLM Poisson regression with several chosen factors as predictor to predict the total number of cases in each of the country mentioned above. Study shows that demographic and socio-economic factors, urbanizations, previous history of other mosquito-borne disease, and climate is a potential factors of dengue incidence. ENSO is also a possible significant factor but the effect of it is found to be not consistent in every country. The regression model produced from the analysis can predict the dengue case dynamics and trends well enough for future reference.

Item Type: Thesis (Bachelor)
Creators:
CreatorsNIMEmail
Arissaputri, ReginaNIM01113170022regina.arissaputri@gmail.com
Contributors:
ContributionContributorsNIDN/NIDKEmail
Thesis advisorPinontoan, ReinhardNIDN0325046502reinhard.pinontoan@uph.edu
Thesis advisorMargaretha, HelenaNIDN0312057504helena.margaretha@uph.edu
Uncontrolled Keywords: demam berdarah; Asia-Pasifik; analisis spatio-temporal; LISA; GLM; regresi poisson
Subjects: Q Science > QH Natural history > QH301 Biology
Divisions: University Subject > Current > Faculty/School - UPH Karawaci > Faculty of Science and Technology > Biology
Current > Faculty/School - UPH Karawaci > Faculty of Science and Technology > Biology
Depositing User: Users 4983 not found.
Date Deposited: 23 Sep 2021 02:53
Last Modified: 23 Feb 2022 04:20
URI: http://repository.uph.edu/id/eprint/42516

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