Perhitungan premi dan cadangan asuransi penyakit diabetes, hipertensi, dan stroke berdasarkan karakteristik individu = Premium pricing and reserving for diabetes, hypertension and stroke insurance based on individual characteristics

Edbert, Johan Sebastian (2022) Perhitungan premi dan cadangan asuransi penyakit diabetes, hipertensi, dan stroke berdasarkan karakteristik individu = Premium pricing and reserving for diabetes, hypertension and stroke insurance based on individual characteristics. Bachelor thesis, Universitas Pelita Harapan.

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Abstract

Penyakit diabetes, hipertensi, dan stroke merupakan penyakit-penyakit kronis yang membutuhkan pengobatan jangka panjang serta memiliki angka kematian yang cukup tinggi. Oleh karena itu, diperlukan suatu produk asuransi yang dapat memberikan jaminan sehingga dapat membantu meringankan beban dari penderitanya. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memodelkan produk asuransi dengan menggunakan permanent disability model yang terdiri dari sembilan keadaan. Probabilitas transisi diperoleh dengan memodelkan prevalensi penyakit serta intensitas transisi menggunakan regresi logistik dengan memperhitungkan faktor karakteristik individu. Faktor-faktor yang diperhitungkan adalah jenis kelamin, usia, lokasi, indeks massa tubuh, pola hidup, serta keadaan ekonomi. Produk asuransi yang dibentuk adalah asuransi berjangka dengan pertanggungan hingga usia 75 tahun yang terdiri dari manfaat anuitas ketika menderita penyakit serta manfaat kematian. Besar premi dan cadangan dihitung dengan menggunakan prinsip ekuivalensi serta metode prospektif. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa karakteristik individu merupakan faktor yang mempengaruhi besar premi dan cadangan asuransi. Premi laki-laki lebih tinggi dibandingkan perempuan. Faktor-faktor risiko yang berasosiasi positif terhadap besar premi di antaranya indeks massa tubuh, prevalensi konsumsi makanan manis, makanan berlemak, makanan berbumbu penyedap, aktivitas merokok serta aktivitas fisik yang kurang aktif. Sedangkan faktor prevalensi konsumsi sayur dan minuman berkafein serta keadaan ekonomi berasosiasi negatif terhadap besar premi. Dari hasil simulasi profit testing, probabilitas transisi yang dihitung dengan menggunakan asumsi independen memberikan nilai premi yang tertinggi. / Diabetes, hypertension and stroke are chronic diseases that require long-term treatment and have quite high mortality rate. Therefore, an insurance product is needed in order to help ease the financial burden of the sufferer. This study aims to model an insurance product using the permanent disability model with nine states. The transition probability is obtained by modeling the disease prevalence and also transition intensity using logistic regression by taking into account individual characteristics as the factors. The factors taken into account are gender, age, location, body mass index, lifestyle, and economic conditions. The insurance product designed is term-insurance with coverage up to 75 years old which consists of annuity benefit that are being paid when suffering disease(s) and death benefit. Premiums and reserves are calculated using equivalence principle and prospective method. The result shows that individual characteristics are factor that affect the amount of premium and reserve. Male’s premiums are higher than female’s. Risk factors that are positively associated with the amount of premiums are body mass index, prevalence of sweet foods, fatty foods, and flavored foods consumption. Smoking and inactive physical activity also positively associated with the premiums. Meanwhile, prevalence of vegetable and caffeinated beverages consumption and also economic conditions are negatively associated with the premiums. From the simulation of profit testing, the transition probability calculated with independent assumption gives the highest premiums value.

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