Predicting financial distress in indonesia companies

Witono, Donny Susanto (2015) Predicting financial distress in indonesia companies. Masters thesis, Universtitas Pelita Harapan.

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Abstract

Financial distress bisa menjadi kebangkrutan. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah membuat model prediksi financial distress di Indonesia menggunakan data keuangan terkini dari tahun 2008 sampai tahun 2011. Model ini diuji menggunakan 24 rasio keuangan, yaitu: cash flow ratio, cash flow to total debt, current liabilities to total asset, EBIT to fixed asset, EBIT to total liabilities, equity to long term debt, market value of equity to book value of debt, net income to fixed asset, net income to total debt, total debt to total asset, current asset to current liabilities, liquid asset to current liabilities, net liquid asset to current liabilities, working capital to total asset, EBIT to current liabilities, EBIT to sales, EBIT to total asset, net income to sales, net income to total asset, retained earning to total asset, expenses to sales, sales to fixed asset , sales to total asset dan working capital to sales. Penelitian ini mengamati 28 perusahaan distress dan 28 perusahaan non distress sebagai pasangannya. Penelitian ini menggunakan regresi logistik sebegai metodologi penelitiannya. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa ada 12 rasio keuangan yang membentuk model yang baru. Rasio tersebut adalah: current liabilities to total asset, EBIT to fixed asset, net income to fixed asset, current asset to current liabilities, liquid asset to current liabilities, working capital to total asset, EBIT to sales, EBIT to total asset, net income to sales, net income to total asset, dan retained earning to total asset. Model yang dihasilkan memiliki tingkat akurasi sebanyak 76.8%.

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