Dinamika keamanan gas Eropa dari sebelum hingga saat konflik Rusia-Ukraina (2009-2022) = The dynamics of European gas security prior to and during The Russo-Ukrainian Conflict (2009-2022)

Soewanto, Edward (2023) Dinamika keamanan gas Eropa dari sebelum hingga saat konflik Rusia-Ukraina (2009-2022) = The dynamics of European gas security prior to and during The Russo-Ukrainian Conflict (2009-2022). Bachelor thesis, Universitas Pelita Harapan.

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Abstract

European energy security concept dates back from the founding of European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC), which explains energy plays a crucial role in European security. The concern of European energy security could lead into an outside-in impact towards the European public through impacts on European businesses. Furthermore, with European energy security, it heavily relies upon the mercy of Russia to supply Europe with gas. Though, European energy security has its goals hampered with a long-standing series of events deep-rooted since the Ostpolitik approach by West Germany during the Cold War, to the collapse of the USSR with the basis of Russia’s Law on Security, and with Russian Energy Security Doctrine (ESD) together with Russian Energy Security (ES) document amended with their respective adaptations to level with the dynamics of the international energy market, demands and threats. Along with Europe to secure its energy security with its REPowerEU and other policy decisions came from EU’s officials. Though, Russia’s ESD has swept in through Europe with the series of “red flags” during the 2009, 2014, and 2022 timeline. This research finds itself answering the question of what kind of leverage, politically and economically, Europe has during the current 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine to lessen its dependence on Russian gas, and how Russia managed to secure its ESD and ES interests through the resilience of the ESD and ES principles along with the resilience of the Russian Ruble therefore. The theory of Neoclassical realism has been incorporated within the research with supporting concepts such as Tit-for-tat diplomacy, Geopolitical strategy, and Foreign policy. Neoclassical realism builds itself upon the complex and hard relations between the state and society found in classical realism, without sacrificing the central insight of neorealism in regards to the international system. Hence, it is concluded that Russia have a larger leverage over European energy security that accounts Russian Ruble’s immense resilience and with its ESD and ES achieved greatly. / Konsep keamanan energi Eropa dapat ditarik dari sewaktu pendirian Komunitas Batu bara dan Besi Eropa (ECSC), yang dijelaskan jika energi merupakan hal yang sangat krusial untuk keamanan Eropa secara garis besar. Kekhawatiran keamanan energi Eropa dapat berdampak pada bisnis – bisnis Eropa yang bisa dihubungkan langsung efeknya pada publik Eropa. Terlebih lagi, keamanan energi Eropa sangat mengadalkan Rusia untuk memasok Eropa dengan gas. Namun, keamanan energi Eropa juga dilihat dari kejadian yang ditarik sejak pendekatan Ostpolitik oleh Jerman Barat saat Perang Dingin, hingga keruntuhan Uni Soviet yang menjadi basis pembentukan Hukum Keamanan Rusia, dan dengan Doktrin Keamanan Energy (ESD) Rusia dengan dokumen keamanan energi (ES) Rusia. Ditambah dengan Eropa untuk mengamankan keamanan energinya dengan REPowerEU dan keputusan kebijakan lain yang dihasilkan oleh pejabat Uni Eropa. Namun, Doktrin Keamanan Energi Rusia telah membawa Eropa ke serangkaian “firasat buruk” pada Rusia dalam rangkaian kejadian pada tahun 2009, 2014, dan 2022. Maka dari itu, penelitian ini diharapkan untuk menemukan jawaban atas adanya pengungkilan apa saja yang memungkinkan bagi Eropa, secara politik dan ekonomi sewaktu invasi Ukraina oleh Rusia tahun 2022 yang bisa mengurangi ketergantungan pada gas Rusia. Serta, bagaimana Rusia berhasil untuk mengamankan kepentingannya prinsip ESD dan ES bersamaan dengan ketahanan Rubel Rusia. Teori Realisme neoklasikal juga sudah tercerminkan didalam penelitian dengan konsep pendukunng seperti Diplomasi tit-for-tat, Strategi geopolitik, Kebijakan luar negeri, dan Politik hijau. Realisme neoklasikal membangun argumennya dari hubungan yang kompleks yang sulit diantara negara dan lingkungan yang terdapat di realisme klasikal, tanpa mengorbankan pandangan dari neorealisme dalam hal sistem internasional. Dapat disimpulkan bahwa Rusia memiliki pengungkilan yang lebih besar atas keamanan energi Eropa melihat kondisi ketahanan Rubel Rusia dan prinsip ESD serta ES yang telah dicapai.

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