Prediksi harapan hidup berdasarkan jenis kelamin dan daerah tempat tinggal di empat negara berkembang ASEAN dengan metode ARIMAX, RIDGE, dan LASSO

Calista, Evelyn (2024) Prediksi harapan hidup berdasarkan jenis kelamin dan daerah tempat tinggal di empat negara berkembang ASEAN dengan metode ARIMAX, RIDGE, dan LASSO. Bachelor thesis, Universitas Pelita Harapan.

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Abstract

Harapan hidup adalah perkiraan atau nilai rata-rata tahun yang diperkirakan bahwa seseorang atau kelompok penduduk akan hidup. Selama bertahun-tahun, banyak peneliti telah mendedikasikan waktu untuk mempelajari dan memprediksi harapan hidup, dengan tujuan untuk mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi fluktuasi harapan hidup seseorang. Harapan hidup telah terbukti dipengaruhi oleh beberapa faktor, termasuk jenis kelamin dan lokasi tempat tinggal seseorang. Dalam penelitian ini, akan dilakukan prediksi harapan hidup dengan mempertimbangkan pengaruh variabel independen seperti jenis kelamin dan daerah tempat tinggal. Penelitian ini mengimplementasikan tiga metode berbeda, yaitu Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous (ARIMAX), regresi Regularized Least Square (RIDGE), dan regresi Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) untuk memprediksi harapan hidup di empat negara. Selain itu, dilakukan perbandingan kinerja masing-masing model dengan mengukur tingkat kesalahan menggunakan Mean Squared Error (MSE) dan Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). Data yang digunakan melibatkan serangkaian tahun dari empat negara berkembang di ASEAN, yakni Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, dan Filipina, dari tahun 1960 hingga 2021. Semua data diambil dari laman DataBank The World Bank. Hasil perbandingan menunjukkan bahwa metode ARIMAX memiliki kinerja lebih baik dalam memprediksi harapan hidup dengan mempertimbangkan variabel independen, seperti yang terlihat pada kasus Indonesia. Untuk variabel jenis kelamin, ditemukan nilai MSE sebesar 4,182625 ×10e−6 dan RMSE sebesar 0,006467322, sementara untuk variabel daerah tempat tinggal, terdapat MSE sebesar 0,0001044509 dan RMSE sebesar 0,01022012./Life expectancy, either for an individual or a demographic group, is an approximation or the mean duration of years expected to be lived. Over time, numerous researchers have dedicated their efforts to examine and project life expectancy, with the goal of recognizing factors that contribute to its variations. Life expectancy has been demonstrated to be affected by diverse elements, encompassing factors like gender and the geographic location of an individual’s dwelling. This research endeavors to forecast life expectancy by taking into account the impact of independent variables such as gender and residential region. The study employs three distinct methodologies: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous (ARIMAX), Regularized Least Square Regression (RIDGE), and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator Regression (LASSO) to prognosticate life expectancy in four nations. Furthermore, the effectiveness of each model is assessed by gauging error levels using Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The dataset encompasses a sequence of years from four developing nations in ASEAN—specifically Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines—from 1960 to 2021, with all data sourced from The World Bank’s DataBank. The comparative results indicate that the ARIMAX method performs better in predicting life expectancy when considering independent variables, as observed in the case of Indonesia. For the gender variable, the MSE is found to be 4,182625 ×10e−6 and the RMSE is 0,006467322, while for the residential location variable, there is a MSE of 0,0001044509 and a RMSE of 0,01022012.

Item Type: Thesis (Bachelor)
Creators:
CreatorsNIMEmail
Calista, EvelynNIM01112200004evelync0506@gmail.com
Contributors:
ContributionContributorsNIDN/NIDKEmail
Thesis advisorCahyadi, LinaNIDN0328077701lina.cahyadi@uph.edu
Thesis advisorWidjaja, PetrusNIDN0314095901petrus.widjaja@uph.edu
Uncontrolled Keywords: harapan hidup; jenis kelamin; daerah tempat tinggal; ARIMAX; RIDGE; LASSO; prediksi
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Divisions: University Subject > Current > Faculty/School - UPH Karawaci > Faculty of Science and Technology > Mathematics
Current > Faculty/School - UPH Karawaci > Faculty of Science and Technology > Mathematics
Depositing User: Evelyn Calista
Date Deposited: 30 Jan 2024 00:58
Last Modified: 30 Jan 2024 00:58
URI: http://repository.uph.edu/id/eprint/60999

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