Simulasi perubahan iklim dengan menggunakan en-roads = Climate change simulation using en-roads

Alfredo, Christopher (2024) Simulasi perubahan iklim dengan menggunakan en-roads = Climate change simulation using en-roads. Bachelor thesis, Universitas Pelita Harapan.

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Abstract

Dalam menghadapi krisis perubahan iklim, diperlukan tindakan dan perencanaan yang tepat. Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk menganalisis sistem perubahan iklim berdasarkan alat bantu En-ROADS untuk mengetahui hal-hal yang harus diprioritaskan dan menilai kebijakan-kebijakan yang direncanakan pemerintahan dunia dalam menghadapi krisis perubahan iklim. Dalam menganalisis sistem perubahan iklim, setiap variabel dengan parameter terpilih akan dilakukan uji regresi dengan 4 metode yaitu: regresi linear berganda, regresi LASSO, regresi Ridge, dan regresi Random Forests. Keempat regresi tersebut dilakukan dengan model testing menggunakan Jupyter Notebook. Hasil terbaik didapat dari hasil metode regresi Random Forests dengan nilai RMSE sebesar 0.0224 untuk versi deforestasi dan 0.0199 pada versi degradasi hutan. Angka tersebut jauh lebih kecil dibandingkan ketiga metode lainnya. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa regresi Random Forests lebih reliabel dibandingkan ketiga metode regresi lainnya. Tiga hal atau variabel yang paling berdampak adalah Carbon Pricing, Metana dan Gas Lain, dan Aforestasi. Sedangkan untuk hasil analisis kebijakan-kebijakan saat ini menunjukkan bahwa dunia fokus dalam transisi energi fosil menuju elektrifikasi dan energi bersih (renewable). Selain itu, pemerintahan dunia juga sedang memfokuskan dalam kerja sama dan unifikasi antar negara untuk menyelesaikan krisis global secara kolektif. Dapat dikatakan metode carbon pricing belum diprioritaskan karena memiliki dampak negatif terhadap aspek lain seperti ekonomi. Dengan kata lain, berdasarkan hasil yang didapat maka dapat dikatakan bahwa saat ini dunia masih dalam tahap persiapan atau dalam tahap awal dalam mengimplementasikan kebijakan-kebijakan untuk krisis perubahan iklim. / In dealing with the climate change crisis, appropriate action and planning are needed. This research is conducted to analyze the climate change system based on the En-ROADS tool to find out the things that should be prioritized and assess the policies planned by the world government in facing the climate change crisis. In analyzing the climate change system, each variable with selected parameters will be tested regression with 4 methods, namely: multiple linear regression, LASSO regression, Ridge regression, and Random Forests regression. The four regressions were carried out with a testing model using Jupyter Notebook. The best results were obtained from the Random Forests regression method with an RMSE value of 0.0224 for the deforestation version and 0.0199 for the forest degradation version. This figure is much smaller than the other three methods. This shows that Random Forests regression is more reliable than the other three regression methods. The three most impactful items or variables are Carbon Pricing, Methane and Other Gases, and Afforestation. As for the results of the analysis of current policies, it shows that the world is focused on the transition of fossil energy to electrification and clean energy (renewable). In addition, the world government is also focusing on cooperation and unification between countries to solve the global crisis collectively. It can be said that the carbon pricing method has not been prioritized because it has a negative impact on the economy. In other words, based on the results obtained, it can be said that currently the world is still in the preparatory stage or in the early stages of implementing carbon pricing.

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