Analisis pengaruh faktor cuaca dan sosial ekonomi terhadap penyebaran demam dengue pada negara di benua Amerika = Analyzing the influence of weather and socio-economic factors on the spread of dengue fever in countries in the Americas.

Laurent, Chelsea Venusha (2024) Analisis pengaruh faktor cuaca dan sosial ekonomi terhadap penyebaran demam dengue pada negara di benua Amerika = Analyzing the influence of weather and socio-economic factors on the spread of dengue fever in countries in the Americas. Bachelor thesis, Universitas Pelita Harapan.

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Abstract

Demam dengue atau demam berdarah merupakan sebuah penyakit yang telah mempengaruhi hampir seluruh populasi dunia dan muncul sebagai masalah global sejak tahun 1960-an. Sekitar empat miliar orang tinggal di daerah yang berisiko terkena demam dengue. Pada penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui penerapan Generalized Linear Model (GLM) dengan distribusi Poisson dalam menganalisis pengaruh faktor cuaca dan sosial ekonomi terhadap jumlah kasus demam dengue di Benua Amerika dengan menggunakan tiga negara perwakilan dari hasil Clustering K-Means yaitu Brazil, Mexico, dan Saint Kitts and Nevis. Metode Generalized Linear Model (GLM) digunakan dalam memodelkan jumlah kasus demam dengue dan faktor cuaca, serta sosial ekonomi yang telah direduksi menjadi beberapa komponen utama dengan metode menggunakan metode Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Data yang digunakan adalah data tahunan jumlah kasus demam dengue tahun 1980 hingga 2022, dan faktor cuaca serta sosial ekonomi yang berpotensi memiliki pengaruh terhadap demam dengue. Hasil pemodelan dengan Generalized Linear Model dibandingkan dengan data aktual untuk memberikan gambaran tentang seberapa besar kesalahan model relatif terhadap variabilitas data aktual. Pemodelan dengan menggunakan GLM menunjukkan bahwa hasil dari model dapat mengikuti tren data aktual. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa terdapat pengaruh antara faktor cuaca dan sosial ekonomi terhadap jumlah kasus demam dengue. Brazil dipengaruhi oleh empat komponen, Mexico dipengaruhi oleh empat komponen, dan Saint Kitts and Nevis dipengaruhi oleh lima komponen. Penelitian ini memungkinkan identifikasi variabel yang memengaruhi jumlah kasus demam dengue. Dengan demikian, masing-masing negara dapat mempertimbangkan faktor-faktor yang berdampak pada jumlah kasus demam dengue di wilayahnya. / Dengue fever, or dengue hemorrhagic fever, is a disease that has affected nearly the entire global population and emerged as a global problem since the 1960s. Approximately four billion people live in areas at risk of dengue fever. This research aims to explore the application of the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) with Poisson distribution in analyzing the influence of weather and socioeconomic factors on the number of dengue fever cases in the Americas, using three representative countries from the results of K-Means clustering, namely Brazil, Mexico, and Saint Kitts and Nevis. The Generalized Linear Model (GLM) method is used to model the number of dengue fever cases and weather, as well as socioeconomic factors that have been reduced to several principal components using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method. The data used are annual data on the number of dengue fever cases from 1980 to 2022, and weather and socioeconomic factors that potentially influence dengue fever. The modeling results with the Generalized Linear Model are compared with actual data to provide an overview of the extent of model error relative to the variability of actual data. Modeling using GLM indicates that the model results can follow the trends of actual data. The results indicate that there is an influence between weather and socioeconomic factors on the number of dengue fever cases. Brazil is influenced by four components, Mexico by four components, and Saint Kitts and Nevis by five components. This research enables the identification of variables that affect the number of dengue fever cases. Thus, each country can consider factors that impact the number of dengue fever cases in its region.

Item Type: Thesis (Bachelor)
Creators:
CreatorsNIMEmail
Laurent, Chelsea VenushaNIM01112200016chelsea.venusha.laurent@gmail.com
Contributors:
ContributionContributorsNIDN/NIDKEmail
Thesis advisorMargaretha, HelenaNIDN0312057504helena.margaretha@uph.edu
Thesis advisorFerdinand, Ferry VincenttiusNIDN0323059001ferry.vincenttius@uph.edu
Uncontrolled Keywords: generalized linear model; principal component analysis; clustering; poisson; k-means; dengue.
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Divisions: University Subject > Current > Faculty/School - UPH Karawaci > Faculty of Science and Technology > Mathematics
Current > Faculty/School - UPH Karawaci > Faculty of Science and Technology > Mathematics
Depositing User: Chelsea Venusha Laurent
Date Deposited: 23 Jul 2024 01:22
Last Modified: 23 Jul 2024 01:22
URI: http://repository.uph.edu/id/eprint/64217

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