Analisis Program Jaminan Pensiun Pemerintah di Indonesia dengan Skenario Survivor-Mortality (SM) Bond = Analysis of government’s pension security program in Indonesia with survivor-mortality (sm) bond scenario

Angelica, Livia (2020) Analisis Program Jaminan Pensiun Pemerintah di Indonesia dengan Skenario Survivor-Mortality (SM) Bond = Analysis of government’s pension security program in Indonesia with survivor-mortality (sm) bond scenario. Bachelor thesis, Universitas Pelita Harapan.

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Abstract

Longevity risk has a significant impact on both retirees and the government. For retirees, living expenses and health costs in old age can exceed the allocated retirement savings. For the government, longevity risk causes intergenerational risk transfer. Indonesia will experience an aging population in the future, therefore careful planning is needed to ensure that there is sufficient and effectively allocated pension fund. The Survivor-Mortality (SM) Bond scenario can prevent risk transfer between ages and divert income from participants who died first to those who survive, hence the impact of increasing longevity is spread across the whole group of SM Bond owners and the government does not need to bear longevity risk. In this thesis, the SM Bond scenario will be utilized to analyze government policies related to pension security program managed by the Social Security Institution (BPJS). Based on the retirement benefits’ limit set by the government, the price of S bond and M bond is calculated for each enrollment age. The life table used is based on the estimated mortality rate valuated in 2019. The total price of the S bonds and M bonds becomes the annual premium. Hence, the amount needed to be allocated from participants’ wage every month to meet the smallest financing of pension fund based on the SM Bond scenario can be calculated as well as the minimum wage level required thus the 3% of it could meet the monthly allocation requirement. Based on the computation results, the price of SM Bond for an originator increases every year because the magnitude of benefits adjusts to inflation. The SM Bond price for female participants is more expensive than male participants because women’s life expectancy is higher than men’s. The earlier the origination age, the cheaper the price of SM Bonds and the total retirement benefit without compounding compared to the total payment without compounding gives higher results. Finally, the overall minimum wage rate based on the SM Bond scenario exceeds the maximum wage rate set by the government, therefore the 3% allocation of wages is not sufficient. Longevity risk berdampak signifikan kepada pensiunan dan pemerintah. Pada pensiunan, pengeluaran untuk kebutuhan hidup dan biaya kesehatan di usia lanjut dapat melebihi tabungan pensiun yang telah dialokasikan. Pada pemerintah, longevity risk mengakibatkan intergenerational risk transfer. Skenario Survivor-Mortality (SM) Bond dapat mencegah risk transfer antar angkatan usia dengan mengalihkan pemasukan dari peserta yang terlebih dahulu meninggal kepada peserta yang masih hidup, sehingga dampak dari peningkatan usia populasi disebar secara merata kepada para pemegang SM Bond dan pemerintah tidak perlu menanggung longevity risk. Pada skripsi ini, skenario SM Bond digunakan untuk melakukan analisis terhadap program jaminan pensiun pemerintah yang dikelola oleh Badan Penyelenggara Jaminan Sosial (BPJS) Ketenagakerjaan. Berdasarkan batas manfaat pensiun yang ditetapkan oleh pemerintah, akan dihitung harga komponen S dan komponen M untuk setiap usia bergabung. Tabel mortalita yang digunakan berdasarkan prakiraan tingkat mortalita yang dievaluasi pada tahun 2019. Total harga komponen S dan komponen M menjadi iuran per tahun. Kemudian, akan dihitung jumlah yang perlu dialokasikan dari upah setiap bulan untuk memenuhi pembiayaan jaminan pensiun terkecil sesuai skenario SM Bond serta upah minimum yang diperlukan agar 3% dari upah memenuhi kebutuhan alokasi per bulan. Berdasarkan hasil perhitungan, harga SM Bond untuk suatu usia bergabung meningkat setiap tahun karena besar manfaat turut menyesuaikan dengan inflasi. Harga SM Bond untuk peserta wanita lebih mahal dibandingkan peserta pria karena usia harapan hidup wanita lebih tinggi dibandingkan pria. Untuk usia bergabung yang lebih muda, harga SM Bond lebih murah dan total manfaat pensiun tanpa bunga lebih tinggi relatif terhadap total pembayaran tanpa bunga. Hasil perhitungan upah minimum berdasarkan skenario SM Bond secara keseluruhan melebihi batas maksimum upah yang ditetapkan oleh pemerintah sehingga alokasi iuran jaminan pensiun sebesar 3% dari upah belum mencukupi.

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