Lestari, Adeline Putri
(2015)
Kmv mengestimasi probabilitas default perusahaan publik Indonesia.
Bachelor thesis, Universitas Pelita Harapan.
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Abstract
Penelitian ini meneliti kecocokan KMV terhadap perusahaan di Indonesia sebagai negara berkembang. Tingkat kecocokan dinilai melalui analisis grafis nilai probabilitas default historis yang dihasilkan KMV dibandingkan PEFINDO, nilai eror, serta lag waktu hasil perhitungan KMV. Sampel yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah 36 perusahaan dari industri Telekomunikasi, Pertambangan, Properti, Otomotif, Consumer Goods, Keuangan, dan industri lainnya. Secara teori, hasil KMV ditentukan oleh nilai pasar atas aset, liabilitas, dan pergerakan nilai aset. Namun, penelitian ini menemukan bagaiman pergerakan nilai aset memberikan pengaruh paling besar bagi tinggi rendahnya nilai probabilitas kegagalan.
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This research aim to measure the suitability of KMV to companies in Indonesia as a developing country. The level of suitability will be defined by graphical analysis that compare the historical value of probability default which been measured by KMV to PEFINDO, level of error, and time lag. Hence, this paper will let the reader see how applicable KMV in Indonesian market. The samples are from 36 public companies from telecommunication, Mining, Property, Automotive, Consumer Goods, Finance, and other industry. In theory, KMV is determined by Market Value of Asset, Liability, and Volatility of Asset. This paper has found how Volatility of Asset became the most influenced variable to determine low or high the default probability is.
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