Analisis prediksi tingkat hunian kamar hotel Neo Candi Semarang = Prediction analysis occupancy rate of hotel neo candi Semarang

Setiawan, Abednego Raynaldo (2018) Analisis prediksi tingkat hunian kamar hotel Neo Candi Semarang = Prediction analysis occupancy rate of hotel neo candi Semarang. Bachelor thesis, Universitas Pelita Harapan.

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Abstract

Intensitas persaingan yang sangat tinggi ini sangat menguji kemampuan sebuah hotel dalam berkompetisi dan mempertahankan kelangsungan usahanya. Dari permasalahan mengenai intensitas persaingan yang semakin tinggi dan keinginan untuk mendapatkan pendapatan yang besar, maka dalam penelitian ini akan dilakukan prediksi tingkat hunian kamar dengan variabel harga, variabel konsumsi di bidang rekreasi dan variabel tingkat hunian hotel kota Semarang dalam kurun waktu bulan dari tahun 2014-2017 sebagai variabel yang mempengaruhi tingkat hunian kamar hotel Neo. Model Vector Autoregressive (VAR) merupakan salah satu model yang digunakan untuk menentukan peramalan. Tujuan penelitian ini yaitu Didapatkan suatu model prediksi untuk tingkat hunian kamar yang cocok untuk Hotel Neo Candi Semarang. Didapatkan prediksi tingkat hunian kamar untuk periode tahun 2018 dari model yang sudah dinilai cocok. menggunakan metode Vector Autoregressive (VAR). VAR merupakan suatu sistem persamaan yang memperlihatkan setiap variabel sebagai fungsi linear dari konstanta dan nilai lag (lampau) dari variabel itu sendiri, serta nilai lag dari variabel lain yang ada dalam model. Hasil analisis pada penelitian ini mendapatkan model terbaik untuk tingkat hunian kamar Hotel Neo adalah model VAR(1). Hasil peramalan tahun 2018 diperoleh bahwa tingkat hunian mengalami kenaikan dan penurunan yang tidak signifikan dari bulan ke bulan. / The intensity of the hotel competition is very high that the ability of a hotel in competing and maintaining continuity of its business will be tested. From the problem of the intensity of competition is higher and the desire to earn a large income, it will be predicted the occupancy rate of rooms with variable prices, consumption variables in the field of recreation and variable occupancy rate of Semarang city hotel in the period of months from 2014- 2017 as a variable affecting the occupancy rate of Neo hotel rooms. Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) is one of the models used to determine forecasting. The purpose of this study is to obtained a prediction model for room occupancy rate suitable for Hotel Neo Semarang. The prediction of room occupancy rate for the period of 2018 from the model that has been considered suitable. using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) method. VAR is a system of equations which shows each variable as a linear function of the constant and the lag value of the variable itself, and the lag value of another variable present in the model. The results of the analysis in this study get the best model for room occupancy rate Neo Hotel is model VAR (1). The results of forecasting in 2018 found that the occupancy rate are in constant form from month to month.

Item Type: Thesis (Bachelor)
Creators:
CreatorsNIMEmail
Setiawan, Abednego RaynaldoNIM00000006798UNSPECIFIED
Contributors:
ContributionContributorsNIDN/NIDKEmail
Thesis advisorSaputra, Kie Van IvankyNIDN0401038203kie.saputra@uph.edu
Thesis advisorFerdinand, Ferry VincenttiusNIDN0323059001ferry.vincenttius@uph.edu
Additional Information: SK 112-14 SET a 2018 ; 31001000152901
Uncontrolled Keywords: occupancy rate; VAR; stationary; granger causality
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Divisions: University Subject > Current > Faculty/School - UPH Karawaci > Faculty of Science and Technology > Mathematics
Current > Faculty/School - UPH Karawaci > Faculty of Science and Technology > Mathematics
Depositing User: Mrs Veronica Fitri Astuti
Date Deposited: 12 May 2021 14:20
Last Modified: 28 Mar 2024 09:52
URI: http://repository.uph.edu/id/eprint/18454

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