Claudia, Stefanie (2022) Penentuan harga guaranteed annuity option di Indonesia menggunakan hull-white interest rate model. Bachelor thesis, Universitas Pelita Harapan.
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Abstract
Kestabilan finansial merupakan hal yang menjadi idaman banyak orang. Seiring
dengan meningkatnya usia harapan hidup, dana yang diperlukan untuk membiayai
kehidupan sehari-hari juga meningkat. Risiko turunnya suku bunga jangka panjang
juga dapat mengganggu kestabilan imbal hasil terhadap aset yang dimiliki di masa
depan. Maka, penelitian ini memberikan salah satu cara untuk mengatasi masalah
tersebut, yakni dengan memperkenalkan produk guaranteed annuity option
(GAO). GAO adalah sebuah opsi yang memberikan jaminan untuk menukarkan
akumulasi dana polis saat jatuh tempo menjadi sebuah anuitas jiwa dengan suku
yang tetap atau yang sering disebut sebagai guaranteed conversion rate. Penentuan
harga opsi dilakukan menggunakan Hull-White interest rate model. Tabel mortalita
yang digunakan adalah hasil prediksi mortalita dengan model Lee-Carter dan
Renshaw and Haberman untuk melihat perbandingan hasil harga opsi. Dengan
memakai tabel mortalita yang sudah memperhitungkan mortality improvement,
diharapkan penelitian dapat menghasilkan harga opsi yang lebih mencerminkan
situasi di kehidupan nyata. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa harga guaranteed
annuity option di Indonesia berada di kisaran 1,56 - 2,58 untuk setiap nilai nominal
tetap 100. Harga opsi untuk wanita lebih tinggi bila dibandingkan dengan pria dan
harga opsi menggunakan model prediksi mortalita Lee-Carter lebih tinggi bila
dibandingkan dengan model Renshaw and Haberman./Financial stability is the dream of the majority of people. However, as life
expectancy increases, the funds needed to finance daily lives also increases. In
addition, the risk of falling long-term interest rates may destabilize return on assets
held in the future. Hence, this study presents one way to overcome these problems,
namely by introducing guaranteed annuity option. Guaranteed annuity option is a
type of option that provides a guarantee to convert the accumulated policy funds at
maturity into a life annuity using a fixed rate, that is, guaranteed conversion rate.
Option pricing is determined using the Hull-White interest rate model. Predicted
mortality using Lee-Carter and Renshaw and Haberman models are used to
compare option prices. Taking into account individual’s mortality improvement is
expected to produce option prices that better reflect real world situations. The
results obtained show that the price of guaranteed annuity option in Indonesia is in
the range of 1.56 - 2.58 for every fixed face value of 100. Option prices for female
are higher compared to male’s and using Lee-Carter model produces higher option
prices compared to Renshaw and Haberman’s.
Item Type: | Thesis (Bachelor) |
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Creators: | Creators NIM Email ORCID Claudia, Stefanie NIM01112180032 stefanieclaudia11@gmail.com UNSPECIFIED |
Uncontrolled Keywords: | guaranteed annuity option; Hull-White interest rate model; Lee-Carter; Renshaw and Haberman; mortality improvement |
Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics |
Divisions: | University Subject > Current > Faculty/School - UPH Karawaci > Faculty of Science and Technology > Mathematics Current > Faculty/School - UPH Karawaci > Faculty of Science and Technology > Mathematics |
Depositing User: | Stefanie Claudia |
Date Deposited: | 08 Jul 2022 07:07 |
Last Modified: | 08 Jul 2022 07:26 |
URI: | http://repository.uph.edu/id/eprint/48463 |