Pramudito, Aria (2011) Analisis pengaruh suku bunga, inflasi, GDP terhadap hubungan saham dan obligasi di Indonesia. Bachelor thesis, Universtitas Pelita Harapan.
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Abstract
This research has the objective to investigate the dynamic relationship
between stocks and bonds in Indonesia. Some literature says that the relationship
between stocks and bonds in different countries is different depending on the level
of the economy of the country. So the topic of dynamic relationship between
stocks and bonds are still very interesting for investigation. Another goal of this
research is to examine the economic factors affect any movement between stocks
and bonds. There are three economic factors that will be examine their effects on
the stock and bond. The three economic factors are interest rates, inflation and
GDP.
The method applied in this research is using Generalized
Autoregresive Conditional Heteroskedasticity to discover the influence of these
factors and using Vector Error Correction Model to figure out the third of these
factors of shock.
The results show that interest rates and GDP has significant influence
toward relationship between stocks and bond. Meanwhile inflation does not have
significant effects. Other results suggest that interest rates and inflation shock has
a negative response at the beginning of the period. While the GDP shock
responded positively by the correlation between stocks and bonds since the start
of the period / Penelitian ini mempunyai tujuan untuk menyelidiki hubungan dinamis
antara saham dan obligasi di Indonesia. Beberapa literatur mengatakan bahwa
hubungan antara saham dan obligasi di berbagai negara berbeda tergantung pada
tingkat ekonomi negara. Sehingga topik hubungan dinamis antara saham dan
obligasi masih sangat menarik untuk diteliti. Tujuan lain dari penelitian ini adalah
untuk menguji faktor-faktor ekonomi yang mempengaruhi hubungan antara saham
dan obligasi. Ada tiga faktor ekonomi yang akan diteliti pengaruhnya pada saham
dan obligasi. Tiga faktor ekonomi adalah suku bunga, inflasi dan GDP.
Metode yang diterapkan dalam penelitian ini adalah menggunakan
Generalized Autoregresive Conditional Heteroskedasticity untuk meneliti sejauh
mana pengaruh dari faktor-faktor tersebut dan menggunakan Vector Error
Correction Model untuk mengetahui shock dari ketiga faktor tersebut.
Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa suku bunga dan GDP memiliki
pengaruh signifikan terhadap hubungan antara saham dan obligasi. Sementara itu
inflasi tidak memiliki efek signifikan. Hasil lain menunjukkan bahwa shock
tingkat suku bunga dan inflasi memiliki respon negatif pada awal periode.
Sementara shock GDP direspon positif oleh korelasi antara saham dan obligasi
sejak awal periode
Item Type: | Thesis (Bachelor) |
---|---|
Creators: | Creators NIM Email ORCID Pramudito, Aria NIM01120080084 UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED |
Contributors: | Contribution Contributors NIDN/NIDK Email Thesis advisor Kwan, Melinda Christanti UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Thesis advisor Dananjaya, Yanuar UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED |
Uncontrolled Keywords: | correlation stock and bond; interest rate; inflation; gdp; garch; vecm; shock variable |
Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD28 Management. Industrial Management |
Divisions: | University Subject > Current > Faculty/School - UPH Surabaya > Business School > Management Current > Faculty/School - UPH Surabaya > Business School > Management |
Depositing User: | Rafael Rudy |
Date Deposited: | 22 Dec 2023 07:52 |
Last Modified: | 22 Dec 2023 07:52 |
URI: | http://repository.uph.edu/id/eprint/59646 |