The impact of financial speculations on return volatility of futures contracts

Chen, Gabriel Alexander (2024) The impact of financial speculations on return volatility of futures contracts. Bachelor thesis, Universitas Pelita Harapan.

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Abstract

This study examines how financial speculation influences the volatility of futures returns, particularly on coffee, rice, and orange juice as commodities. Through GARCH and TGARCH models, the study evaluates 10 years’ worth of daily data from 2014-2024 to understand how speculative activity impacts market stability amongst these commodities. The findings reveal speculation does impact return volatility, though the effects differ among the commodities. Coffee and rice futures are sensitive to speculative activity, with rice being more sensitive during certain months in the year due to seasonality. Orange juice on the other hand, does not show clear signs of return volatility caused by speculation. This research provides an insight as to how speculation drives volatility in the agricultural commodity markets. Hopefully, these insights will prove valuable to policymakers, investors, and producers with the goal to minimize risk in the volatile commodity markets.
Item Type: Thesis (Bachelor)
Creators:
Creators
NIM
Email
ORCID
Chen, Gabriel Alexander
NIM01013210030
gabrielalexanderchen18@gmail.com
UNSPECIFIED
Contributors:
Contribution
Contributors
NIDN/NIDK
Email
Thesis advisor
Tjong, William
NIDN0318116402
william.tjong@uph.edu
Uncontrolled Keywords: return volatility; speculative activity; commodity markets.
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD28 Management. Industrial Management
Divisions: University Subject > Current > Faculty/School - UPH Karawaci > Business School > Management
Current > Faculty/School - UPH Karawaci > Business School > Management
Depositing User: Gabriel Alexander Chen
Date Deposited: 23 Dec 2024 02:51
Last Modified: 02 Jan 2025 17:16
URI: http://repository.uph.edu/id/eprint/65826

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