Ferdinand, Ferry Vincenttius (2024) Alpha portofolio development using machine learning: empirical evidence in Indonesia. Doctoral thesis, Universitas Pelita Harapan.
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Abstract
Penelitian ini mengembangkan portofolio alfa berbasis machine learning dengan bukti empiris dari pasar saham Indonesia. Studi ini bertujuan untuk menyusun portofolio saham optimal yang mampu mengungguli kinerja pasar melalui pendekatan inovatif yang menggabungkan prediksi harga saham menggunakan Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), pengelompokan saham berdasarkan karakteristik harga menggunakan algoritma clustering, serta optimasi portofolio menggunakan Genetic Algorithm. Penelitian ini memanfaatkan data saham historis dari 60 emiten pada periode 2023-2024 sebagai sampel. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa portofolio yang dihasilkan secara signifikan mampu meningkatkan Sharpe Ratio dan menurunkan risiko yang diukur dengan Value at Risk (VaR) dibandingkan dengan portofolio acuan pasar. Pendekatan ini juga mengintegrasikan simulasi Monte Carlo untuk menguji kinerja portofolio dalam tujuh skenario risiko. Secara keseluruhan, penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa penggabungan teknik machine learning dalam prediksi, clustering, dan optimasi portofolio dapat menghasilkan portofolio yang lebih unggul dibandingkan indeks pasar konvensional dan produk reksadana saham di Indonesia.
Item Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
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Creators: | Creators NIM Email ORCID Ferdinand, Ferry Vincenttius NIM01617190019 ferryvf@yahoo.com UNSPECIFIED |
Contributors: | Contribution Contributors NIDN/NIDK Email Thesis advisor Sembel, Roy NIDN0310076405 roy.sembel@gmail.com Thesis advisor Hulu, Edison NIDN0315085902 hulu.edison@yahoo.com Thesis advisor Ugut, Gracia Shinta Setyadi NIDN0310026504 gracia.ugut@gmail.com |
Uncontrolled Keywords: | Portofolio ; Clustering ; Genetic Algorithm ; Monte Carlo ; VaR |
Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD28 Management. Industrial Management |
Divisions: | University Subject > Current > Faculty/School - UPH Karawaci > Business School > Doctor of Management Current > Faculty/School - UPH Karawaci > Business School > Doctor of Management |
Depositing User: | Ferry Vincenttius Ferdinand |
Date Deposited: | 28 Feb 2025 09:58 |
Last Modified: | 28 Feb 2025 09:58 |
URI: | http://repository.uph.edu/id/eprint/67437 |