Penentuan payoff dan premi ENSO index insurance berdasarkan hasil produksi pertanian padi di Jepang

Reynaldi, Reynaldi (2020) Penentuan payoff dan premi ENSO index insurance berdasarkan hasil produksi pertanian padi di Jepang. Bachelor thesis, Universitas Pelita Harapan.

[thumbnail of Title] Text (Title)
Title.pdf.pdf
Restricted to Registered users only
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial Share Alike.

Download (1MB)
[thumbnail of Abstract]
Preview
Text (Abstract)
Abstract.pdf.pdf
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial Share Alike.

Download (159kB) | Preview
[thumbnail of ToC]
Preview
Text (ToC)
ToC.pdf.pdf
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial Share Alike.

Download (314kB) | Preview
[thumbnail of Chapter1]
Preview
Text (Chapter1)
Chapter1.pdf.pdf
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial Share Alike.

Download (205kB) | Preview
[thumbnail of Chapter2] Text (Chapter2)
Chapter2.pdf.pdf
Restricted to Registered users only
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial Share Alike.

Download (267kB)
[thumbnail of Chapter3] Text (Chapter3)
Chapter3.pdf.pdf
Restricted to Registered users only
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial Share Alike.

Download (348kB)
[thumbnail of Chapter4] Text (Chapter4)
Chapter4.pdf.pdf
Restricted to Registered users only
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial Share Alike.

Download (1MB)
[thumbnail of Chapter5] Text (Chapter5)
Chapter5.pdf.pdf
Restricted to Registered users only
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial Share Alike.

Download (162kB)
[thumbnail of Bibliography]
Preview
Text (Bibliography)
Bibliography.pdf
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial Share Alike.

Download (151kB) | Preview
[thumbnail of Appendices] Text (Appendices)
Appendices.pdf
Restricted to Repository staff only
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial Share Alike.

Download (271kB)

Abstract

El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index insurance merupakan sebuah alat asuransi yang didasarkan pada suhu permukaan laut. Namun, ENSO index insurance memiliki kelemahan yaitu adanya basis risk. Basis risk secara singkat merupakan risiko yang muncul ketika mengalami kerugian tetapi tidak menerima payoff atau tidak mengalami kerugian tetapi menerima payoff. Dengan menggunakan ketiga data produksi, yaitu jumlah produksi yang diubah menjadi JP, average expected, dan yield, didapat bahwa korelasi yang paling berkaitan dengan ketiga data produksi adalah ENSO West index. Regresi logistik digunakan untuk menentukan batas ENSO West index. Regresi logistik juga digunakan untuk menentukan proporsi basis risk, baik data produksi awal maupun estimasi untuk jangka waktu beberapa tahun kedepan. Dilakukan pemilihan proporsi basis risk yang paling minimum. Temporal risk lebih kecil untuk jangka waktu tahun yang lebih panjang dan mengurangi risiko dari basis risk. Raw bootstrap dan spectral bootstrap untuk membuat ENSO West index yang baru menghasilkan bahwa frekuensi clustering payoff relatif besar sehingga estimasi untuk jangka waktu tahun kedepan tidak dapat digunakan. Pemilihan premi dan payoff yang paling optimal dilakukan dengan indemnity dan call and put option. Berdasarkan indemnity payoff, hanya data JP yang memiliki nilai optimal. Berdasarkan call and put option payoff, ketiga data produksi memiliki nilai optimal masing-masing. / El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index insurance is an insurance tool based on sea surface temperature. However, ENSO index insurance has a weakness, which is basis risk. Briefly, basis risk is a risk that someone suffer loss but do not receive any payoff or do not suffer loss bu receive payoff. By using three production data: amount of production that convert to JP, average expected, and yield, is obtained that the highest correlation for the three data production is ENSO West index. Logistic regression are used to determine ENSO West index trigger. Logistic regression also used to determine the proportion of basis risk for both of preliminary data production and forecasting several years in the future. The minimum proportion of basis risk is selected. The value of temporal risk is smaller for more several years in the future and will reduce the basis risk. Raw boostrap and spectral boostrap used for making new ENSO West index show that the frequency of clustering payoff relatively high so that forecasting several years in the future cannot be used. The optimum premium and payoff is selected based on indemnityand calland putoption. Basedonindemnity payoff, onlydata JPhasthe optimal value. Based on call and put option payoff, all of data production have their own optimal value.
Item Type: Thesis (Bachelor)
Creators:
Creators
NIM
Email
ORCID
Reynaldi, Reynaldi
NIM00000021982
reynaldi9298@gmail.com
UNSPECIFIED
Contributors:
Contribution
Contributors
NIDN/NIDK
Email
Thesis advisor
Margaretha, Helena
NIDN0312057504
UNSPECIFIED
Thesis advisor
Stefani, Dina
NIDN0306109002
UNSPECIFIED
Uncontrolled Keywords: basis risk; call and put option; ENSO index; indemnity; regresi logistik
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Divisions: University Subject > Current > Faculty/School - UPH Karawaci > Faculty of Science and Technology > Mathematics
Current > Faculty/School - UPH Karawaci > Faculty of Science and Technology > Mathematics
Depositing User: Users 2206 not found.
Date Deposited: 07 Feb 2020 00:54
Last Modified: 28 Jul 2020 16:01
URI: http://repository.uph.edu/id/eprint/6768

Actions (login required)

View Item
View Item