Optimasi value at risk dan conditional value at risk portofolio beberapa saham indeks lq45 dengan metode copula-garch = Optimization of portfolio value at risk and conditional value at risk for selected lq45 index stocksusingthecopula-garchmethod

Christian, Jonathan (2025) Optimasi value at risk dan conditional value at risk portofolio beberapa saham indeks lq45 dengan metode copula-garch = Optimization of portfolio value at risk and conditional value at risk for selected lq45 index stocksusingthecopula-garchmethod. Bachelor thesis, Universitas Pelita Harapan.

[thumbnail of Title] Text (Title)
Title.pdf
Restricted to Registered users only
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial Share Alike.

Download (327kB)
[thumbnail of Abstract] Text (Abstract)
Abstract.pdf
Restricted to Registered users only
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial Share Alike.

Download (713kB)
[thumbnail of TOC] Text (TOC)
TOC.pdf
Restricted to Registered users only
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial Share Alike.

Download (704kB)
[thumbnail of Chapter 1] Text (Chapter 1)
Chapter 1.pdf
Restricted to Registered users only
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial Share Alike.

Download (916kB)
[thumbnail of Chapter 2] Text (Chapter 2)
Chapter 2.pdf
Restricted to Registered users only
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial Share Alike.

Download (875kB)
[thumbnail of Chapter 3] Text (Chapter 3)
Chapter 3.pdf
Restricted to Registered users only
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial Share Alike.

Download (1MB)
[thumbnail of Chapter 4] Text (Chapter 4)
Chapter 4.pdf
Restricted to Registered users only
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial Share Alike.

Download (1MB)
[thumbnail of Chapter 5] Text (Chapter 5)
Chapter 5.pdf
Restricted to Registered users only
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial Share Alike.

Download (716kB)
[thumbnail of Bibliography] Text (Bibliography)
Bibliography.pdf
Restricted to Registered users only
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial Share Alike.

Download (697kB)
[thumbnail of Appendices] Text (Appendices)
Appendices.pdf
Restricted to Repository staff only
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial Share Alike.

Download (4MB)

Abstract

Pasar saham merupakan salah satu jenis investasi yang populer, dengan indeks LQ45 sebagai tolak ukur yang menggambarkan keadaan pasar saham di Indonesia. Dalam melakukan pengambilan keputusan investasi, pengukuran risiko merupakan aspek penting untuk mengurangi kerugian. Pembentukan portofolio juga dapat membantu memperoleh bobot optimal untuk meminimalkan kerugian. Dalam penelitian ini, akan digunakan metode copula-GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) untuk mengatasi kondisi pasar saham yang tidak stabil dan menangkap hubungan dependensi antar aset dalam melakukan optimalisasi Value at Risk (VaR) dan Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) pada portofolio bivariat. Portofolio bivariat yang dibentuk berasal dari beberapa sampel saham yang termuat dalam indeks LQ45 dari sektor berbeda dengan kapitalisasi pasar besar, yaitu saham PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA), PT Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (TLKM), PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk (UNVR), dan PT Adaro Energy Indonesia Tbk (ADRO) pada rentang periode waktu 1 Juni 2021 hingga 31 Mei 2024. Perhitungan risiko dilakukan untuk satu hari ke depan dan didapatkan bahwa pada tingkat signifikansi 10%, portofolio saham UNVR dengan TLKM menghasilkan VaR teroptimal dengan kombinasi bobot 15% saham UNVR dan 85% saham TLKM, tetapi berdasarkan CVaR, portofolio antar saham BBCA dengan TLKM menghasilkan nilai CVaR teroptimal dengan kombinasi bobot 22% saham BBCA dan 78% saham TLKM. / Stock market is one of the most popular types of investment, with the LQ45 index serving as a benchmark that reflects the state of the stock market in Indonesia. In making investment decisions, risk measurement is a critical aspect to minimize potential losses. Portfolio formation also helps in determining the optimal allocation of weights to reduce losses. This study employs the copula-GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) method to address unstable stock market conditions and capture dependency relationships between assets in optimizing Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) for bivariate portfolios. The bivariate portfolios are constructed from several stocks listed in the LQ45 index, representing different sectors with large market capitalizations. These include PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA), PT Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (TLKM), PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk (UNVR), and PT Adaro Energy Indonesia Tbk (ADRO), over the period from June 1, 2021, to May 31, 2024. The risk calculations are conducted for the next day, and the results show that at a 10% significance level, the portfolio of UNVR and TLKM produces the optimal Value at Risk (VaR) with weight allocations of 15% in UNVR and 85% in TLKM. However, based on Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR), the portfolio of BBCA and TLKM yields the optimal CVaR with weight allocations of 22% in BBCAand78%inTLKM.
Item Type: Thesis (Bachelor)
Creators:
Creators
NIM
Email
ORCID
Christian, Jonathan
NIM01112210001
jonathan.nc73@gmail.com
UNSPECIFIED
Contributors:
Contribution
Contributors
NIDN/NIDK
Email
Thesis advisor
Saputra, Kie Van Ivanky
NIDN0401038203
kie.saputra@uph.edu
Thesis advisor
Ferdinand, Ferry Vincenttius
NIDN0323059001
ferry.vincenttius@uph.edu
Uncontrolled Keywords: value at risk; conditional value at risk; indeks LQ45; portofolio bivariat; model copula-GARCH; value at risk; conditional value at risk; LQ45 index; bivariate portfolio; copula-GARCH model.
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Divisions: University Subject > Current > Faculty/School - UPH Karawaci > Faculty of Science and Technology > Mathematics
Current > Faculty/School - UPH Karawaci > Faculty of Science and Technology > Mathematics
Depositing User: Stefanus Tanjung
Date Deposited: 09 Aug 2025 06:31
Last Modified: 09 Aug 2025 06:31
URI: http://repository.uph.edu/id/eprint/70425

Actions (login required)

View Item
View Item