Christian, Jonathan (2025) Optimasi value at risk dan conditional value at risk portofolio beberapa saham indeks lq45 dengan metode copula-garch = Optimization of portfolio value at risk and conditional value at risk for selected lq45 index stocksusingthecopula-garchmethod. Bachelor thesis, Universitas Pelita Harapan.
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Abstract
Pasar saham merupakan salah satu jenis investasi yang populer, dengan indeks
LQ45 sebagai tolak ukur yang menggambarkan keadaan pasar saham di Indonesia.
Dalam melakukan pengambilan keputusan investasi, pengukuran risiko merupakan
aspek penting untuk mengurangi kerugian. Pembentukan portofolio juga dapat
membantu memperoleh bobot optimal untuk meminimalkan kerugian. Dalam
penelitian ini,
akan digunakan metode copula-GARCH (Generalized
Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) untuk mengatasi kondisi pasar
saham yang tidak stabil dan menangkap hubungan dependensi antar aset dalam
melakukan optimalisasi Value at Risk (VaR) dan Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR)
pada portofolio bivariat. Portofolio bivariat yang dibentuk berasal dari beberapa
sampel saham yang termuat dalam indeks LQ45 dari sektor berbeda dengan
kapitalisasi pasar besar, yaitu saham PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA), PT
Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (TLKM), PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk (UNVR),
dan PT Adaro Energy Indonesia Tbk (ADRO) pada rentang periode waktu 1 Juni
2021 hingga 31 Mei 2024. Perhitungan risiko dilakukan untuk satu hari ke depan
dan didapatkan bahwa pada tingkat signifikansi 10%, portofolio saham UNVR
dengan TLKM menghasilkan VaR teroptimal dengan kombinasi bobot 15% saham
UNVR dan 85% saham TLKM, tetapi berdasarkan CVaR, portofolio antar saham
BBCA dengan TLKM menghasilkan nilai CVaR teroptimal dengan kombinasi
bobot 22% saham BBCA dan 78% saham TLKM. / Stock market is one of the most popular types of investment, with the LQ45 index
serving as a benchmark that reflects the state of the stock market in Indonesia. In
making investment decisions, risk measurement is a critical aspect to minimize
potential losses.
Portfolio formation also helps in determining the optimal
allocation of weights to reduce losses. This study employs the copula-GARCH
(Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) method to address
unstable stock market conditions and capture dependency relationships between
assets in optimizing Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) for
bivariate portfolios. The bivariate portfolios are constructed from several stocks
listed in the LQ45 index, representing different sectors with large market
capitalizations. These include PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA), PT Telkom
Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (TLKM), PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk (UNVR), and PT
Adaro Energy Indonesia Tbk (ADRO), over the period from June 1, 2021, to May
31, 2024. The risk calculations are conducted for the next day, and the results
show that at a 10% significance level, the portfolio of UNVR and TLKM produces
the optimal Value at Risk (VaR) with weight allocations of 15% in UNVR and 85%
in TLKM. However, based on Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR), the portfolio of
BBCA and TLKM yields the optimal CVaR with weight allocations of 22% in
BBCAand78%inTLKM.
Item Type: | Thesis (Bachelor) |
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Creators: | Creators NIM Email ORCID Christian, Jonathan NIM01112210001 jonathan.nc73@gmail.com UNSPECIFIED |
Contributors: | Contribution Contributors NIDN/NIDK Email Thesis advisor Saputra, Kie Van Ivanky NIDN0401038203 kie.saputra@uph.edu Thesis advisor Ferdinand, Ferry Vincenttius NIDN0323059001 ferry.vincenttius@uph.edu |
Uncontrolled Keywords: | value at risk; conditional value at risk; indeks LQ45; portofolio bivariat; model copula-GARCH; value at risk; conditional value at risk; LQ45 index; bivariate portfolio; copula-GARCH model. |
Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics |
Divisions: | University Subject > Current > Faculty/School - UPH Karawaci > Faculty of Science and Technology > Mathematics Current > Faculty/School - UPH Karawaci > Faculty of Science and Technology > Mathematics |
Depositing User: | Stefanus Tanjung |
Date Deposited: | 09 Aug 2025 06:31 |
Last Modified: | 09 Aug 2025 06:31 |
URI: | http://repository.uph.edu/id/eprint/70425 |