Analisis penurunan mortality improvement menggunakan cause-specific scenario untuk Inggris dan Wales sebelum dan selama pandemi covid-19 = Analysis of the decline in mortality improvement using cause-specific scenarios for England and Wales before and during the covid-19 pandemic

Yus, Jeremia Henry (2025) Analisis penurunan mortality improvement menggunakan cause-specific scenario untuk Inggris dan Wales sebelum dan selama pandemi covid-19 = Analysis of the decline in mortality improvement using cause-specific scenarios for England and Wales before and during the covid-19 pandemic. Bachelor thesis, Universitas Pelita Harapan.

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Abstract

Pandemi COVID-19 memberi dampak negatif terhadap kesehatan global, sehingga lebih memperburuk tingkat mortalitas, khususnya pada Inggris dan Wales. Penelitian ini berfokus pada analisis laju mortalitas menggunakan cause-specific scenario untuk mengidentifikasi kontribusi dari penyakit spesifik terhadap penurunan mortality improvement. Teknik deteksi perubahan tren dengan linear spline models digunakan untuk menentukan tahun terjadinya penurunan mortality improvement, sementara model Generalized Linear Models (GLM) diterapkan untuk memodelkan tingkat mortalitas untuk setiap penyakit dan grup umur. Hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukkan penurunan mortality improvement bermula saat tahun 2011 dan 2020. Selain COVID-19, penyakit yang berkontribusi terhadap penurunan mortality improvement selama pandemi COVID-19 adalah penyakit peredaran darah dan pencernaan. Sedangkan penyakit yang berkontribusi terbesar terhadap peningkatan mortality improvement adalah penyakit mental. Laju harapan hidup juga ditinjau pada penelitian ini, penyakit COVID-19 dan penyakit peredaran darah berkontribusi terhadap penurunan laju harapan hidup selama pandemi COVID-19. Pemulihan tingkat mortalitas pasca pandemi COVID-19 diharapkan agar harapan hidup di masa depan tidak menurun. / COVID-19 pandemic negatively impacted global health, exacerbating mortality rates, especially in England and Wales. This study focuses on analyzing mortality trends using a cause-specific scenario to identify the contribution of specific diseases to the decline in mortality improvement. Change detection techniques with linear spline models were used to determine the years when a decrease in mortality improvement occurred, while Generalized Linear Models (GLM) were applied to model mortality rates for each disease and age group.The findings indicate that the decline in mortality improvement began in 2011 and 2020. Apart from COVID-19, diseases contributing to the reduction in mortality improvement during the pandemic included circulatory and digestive diseases. Conversely, mental health disorders were found to contribute most significantly to the increase in mortality improvement. This study also reviewed life expectancy trends, revealing that COVID-19 and circulatory diseases contributed to a decline in life expectancy during the pandemic. Recovery in mortality rates post-COVID-19 is crucial to ensure that future life expectancy does not decrease further.
Item Type: Thesis (Bachelor)
Creators:
Creators
NIM
Email
ORCID
Yus, Jeremia Henry
NIM01112210033
jeremiayus18@gmail.com
UNSPECIFIED
Contributors:
Contribution
Contributors
NIDN/NIDK
Email
Thesis advisor
Margaretha, Helena
NIDN0312057504
helena.margaretha@uph.edu
Thesis advisor
Ferdinand, Ferry Vincenttius
NIDN0323059001
ferry.vincenttius@uph.edu
Uncontrolled Keywords: mortality improvement; cause-specific scenario; metode GLM; pandemi COVID-19; mortality improvement; cause-specific scenario; GLM method; COVID-19 pandemic.
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Divisions: University Subject > Current > Faculty/School - UPH Karawaci > Faculty of Science and Technology > Mathematics
Current > Faculty/School - UPH Karawaci > Faculty of Science and Technology > Mathematics
Depositing User: Stefanus Tanjung
Date Deposited: 10 Aug 2025 05:12
Last Modified: 10 Aug 2025 05:12
URI: http://repository.uph.edu/id/eprint/70443

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