Yus, Jeremia Henry (2025) Analisis penurunan mortality improvement menggunakan cause-specific scenario untuk Inggris dan Wales sebelum dan selama pandemi covid-19 = Analysis of the decline in mortality improvement using cause-specific scenarios for England and Wales before and during the covid-19 pandemic. Bachelor thesis, Universitas Pelita Harapan.
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Abstract
Pandemi COVID-19 memberi dampak negatif terhadap kesehatan global, sehingga
lebih memperburuk tingkat mortalitas, khususnya pada Inggris dan Wales.
Penelitian ini berfokus pada analisis laju mortalitas menggunakan cause-specific
scenario untuk mengidentifikasi kontribusi dari penyakit spesifik terhadap
penurunan mortality improvement. Teknik deteksi perubahan tren dengan linear
spline models digunakan untuk menentukan tahun terjadinya penurunan mortality
improvement, sementara model Generalized Linear Models (GLM) diterapkan
untuk memodelkan tingkat mortalitas untuk setiap penyakit dan grup umur. Hasil
dari penelitian ini menunjukkan penurunan mortality improvement bermula saat
tahun 2011 dan 2020. Selain COVID-19, penyakit yang berkontribusi terhadap
penurunan mortality improvement selama pandemi COVID-19 adalah penyakit
peredaran darah dan pencernaan. Sedangkan penyakit yang berkontribusi terbesar
terhadap peningkatan mortality improvement adalah penyakit mental. Laju
harapan hidup juga ditinjau pada penelitian ini, penyakit COVID-19 dan penyakit
peredaran darah berkontribusi terhadap penurunan laju harapan hidup selama
pandemi COVID-19. Pemulihan tingkat mortalitas pasca pandemi COVID-19
diharapkan agar harapan hidup di masa depan tidak menurun. / COVID-19 pandemic negatively impacted global health, exacerbating mortality
rates, especially in England and Wales. This study focuses on analyzing mortality
trends using a cause-specific scenario to identify the contribution of specific
diseases to the decline in mortality improvement. Change detection techniques
with linear spline models were used to determine the years when a decrease in
mortality improvement occurred, while Generalized Linear Models (GLM) were
applied to model mortality rates for each disease and age group.The findings
indicate that the decline in mortality improvement began in 2011 and 2020. Apart
from COVID-19, diseases contributing to the reduction in mortality improvement
during the pandemic included circulatory and digestive diseases. Conversely,
mental health disorders were found to contribute most significantly to the increase
in mortality improvement. This study also reviewed life expectancy trends,
revealing that COVID-19 and circulatory diseases contributed to a decline in life
expectancy during the pandemic. Recovery in mortality rates post-COVID-19 is
crucial to ensure that future life expectancy does not decrease further.
Item Type: | Thesis (Bachelor) |
---|---|
Creators: | Creators NIM Email ORCID Yus, Jeremia Henry NIM01112210033 jeremiayus18@gmail.com UNSPECIFIED |
Contributors: | Contribution Contributors NIDN/NIDK Email Thesis advisor Margaretha, Helena NIDN0312057504 helena.margaretha@uph.edu Thesis advisor Ferdinand, Ferry Vincenttius NIDN0323059001 ferry.vincenttius@uph.edu |
Uncontrolled Keywords: | mortality improvement; cause-specific scenario; metode GLM; pandemi COVID-19; mortality improvement; cause-specific scenario; GLM method; COVID-19 pandemic. |
Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics |
Divisions: | University Subject > Current > Faculty/School - UPH Karawaci > Faculty of Science and Technology > Mathematics Current > Faculty/School - UPH Karawaci > Faculty of Science and Technology > Mathematics |
Depositing User: | Stefanus Tanjung |
Date Deposited: | 10 Aug 2025 05:12 |
Last Modified: | 10 Aug 2025 05:12 |
URI: | http://repository.uph.edu/id/eprint/70443 |