Implementasi metode regresi linear sederhana untuk memprediksi harga produksi penempaan dingin spesialis bagian logam otomotif pada PT. Fortune Abadi Sejahtera

Ricky, Ricky (2020) Implementasi metode regresi linear sederhana untuk memprediksi harga produksi penempaan dingin spesialis bagian logam otomotif pada PT. Fortune Abadi Sejahtera. Bachelor thesis, Universitas Pelita Harapan.

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Abstract

PT. Fortune Abadi Sejahtera ialah perusahan yang bergerak di bidang penempaan dingin spesialis bagian logam otomotif. Dimana perusahaan ini setiap harinya harus mencukupi kebutuhan distribusi dan di tuntut untuk menggambil keputusan yang tepat dalam menentukan strategi produksi. Terdapat beberapa masalah yang kerap muncul mengenai produk penempaan dingin spesialis bagian logam otomotif. Perusahaan kesulitan mendapatkan informasi strategis seperti penurunan atau kenaikan harga produksi per periode. Oleh karena itu analisis prediksi harga produksi menggunakan tools Rapid Miner diperlukan untuk mengetahui kenaikan atau penurunan harga produksi. Dalam melakukan prediksi harga produksi ada 2 variabel yang digunakan yaitu variabel X sebagai bulan dan variabel Y sebagai harga produksi. Agar prediksi harga produksi dapat berjalan dengan baik maka digunakan metode Regresi Linear Sederhana. Hasil dari prediksi berupa harga produksi dalam periode 1 tahun. Berdasarkan hasil perhitungan tools Rapid Miner yang dilakukan dengan meggunakan metode regresi linear didapat hasil prediksi produk Collar 40x34x35, Cap Kecil 26x17x23.6, Seat Valve Spring 23.6x16.3x3, Seat Valve Spring 23.6x16.3x5 dan Kunci L3 dari bulan Januari sampai dengan Desember 2020 dengan tingkat error 1,45%, 2.92%, 3.93%, 3.17%, 3.71% yang berarti memiliki akurasi yang sangat tinggi karena tingkat kesalahannya tidak melebihi 10% dan termasuk peramalan yang sangat baik. / PT. Fortune Abadi Sejahtera is a company engaged in the field of cold forging specialist automotive metal parts. Where this company must meet the distribution needs every day and are required to make the right decisions in determining the production strategy. There are several problems that often arise regarding cold forging products specialist automotive metal parts. Companies find it difficult to get strategic information such as decreases or increases in production prices per period. Therefore an analysis of prediction of production prices using Rapid Miner tools is needed to determine the increase or decrease in production prices. In making predictions of production prices there are 2 variables used, namely the variable X as a month and the variable Y as the price of production. So that the prediction of production prices can run well, the Simple Linear Regression method is used. The result of the prediction is the price of production in a period of 1 year. Based on the calculation results of the Rapid Miner tools performed using the linear regression method, the prediction results obtained are Collar products 40x34x35, Small Cap 26x17x23.6, Seat Valve Spring 23.6x16.3x3, Seat Valve Spring 23.6x16.3x5 and Key L3 from January to December 2020 with an error rate of 1.45%, 2.92%, 3.93%, 3.17%, 3.71% which means it has very high accuracy because the error rate does not exceed 10% and includes very good forecasting.

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