Analisis determinasi faktor dan proyeksi konsumsi listrik pada sektor rumah tangga di Indonesia

johan, stefanus (2022) Analisis determinasi faktor dan proyeksi konsumsi listrik pada sektor rumah tangga di Indonesia. Masters thesis, Universitas Pelita Harapan.

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Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis determinasi faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi konsumsi listrik rumah tangga di Indonesia dengan menggunakan pendekatan model regresi data panel. Penelitian dilakukan dengan menggunakan data sekunder dari buku rencana usaha penyediaan tenaga listrik PT PLN (Persero) tahun 2021 yang memuat hampir seluruh data setiap variabel, termasuk asumsi dan target dari variabel bebas untuk melakukan peramalan atau proyeksi konsumsi listrik di masa mendatang. Berdasarkan hasil analisa data terdapat pengaruh yang signifikan dan positif dari produk domestik regional bruto, populasi dan inflasi terhadap konsumsi listrik rumah tangga, sedangkan tarif listrik memberikan pengaruh yang signifikan namun bersifat negatif. Model regresi terbaik digunakan untuk memproyeksikan konsumsi listrik sektor rumah tangga untuk periode 2021-2030, hasil proyeksi memberikan gambaran pertumbuhan konsumsi listrik rumah tangga rata-rata secara nasional sebesar 3,6% per tahun / The study aims to analyze the determinant factors of household electricity consumption in Indonesia by using panel data regression model approach. The research was conducted using secondary data from the 2021 electricity supply business plan of PT PLN (Persero) which contains almost all data for each variable, including assumptions and targets of independent variables to forecast the electricity consumption in the future. Based on the results of data analysis, there is a significant and positive effect of regional gross domestic product, population and inflation on household electricity consumption, while electricity tariff have a significant but negative effect. The best regression model is used to project electricity consumption in the household sector for the period 2021-2030, the projection results provide an average of household electricity consumption nationally with 3.6% growth per year.

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