Proyeksi populasi Indonesia menggunakan matriks leslie dan model lee-carter

Utomo, Vincent Hartanto (2019) Proyeksi populasi Indonesia menggunakan matriks leslie dan model lee-carter. Bachelor thesis, Universitas Pelita Harapan.

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Abstract

Populasi adalah bagian penting dari sebuah negara. Diperlukan perencanaan untuk memastikan populasi suatu negara berkembang dengan baik. Bagian penting dari perencanaan tersebut, adalah jumlah populasi di masa depan. Perkembangan populasi dipengaruh komponen-komponen demografi. Metode Lee-Carter dikembangkan sebagai metode statistik untuk menganalisa sekaligus memprakirakan komponen-komponen demografi. Metode Lee-Carter memecah komponen demografi menjadi komponen umur dan waktu dengan menggunakan dekomposisi nilai eigen. Komponen demografi kemudian dapat diprakirakan dengan memprakirakan perubahan komponen waktu di masa depan. Matriks Leslie dikembangkan untuk memanfaatkan komponen-komponen demografi untuk memproyeksikan populasi. Matriks Leslie menyederhanakan nilai-nilai dari komponen demografi menjadi sebuah matriks. Tugas akhir ini memanfaatkan kedua metode tersebut untuk memproyeksikan populasi Indonesia hingga tahun 2050. Dengan metode Lee-Carter, terlihat bahwa tingkat mortalita penduduk Indonesia terus mengalami penurunan. Penurunan ini terjadi bagi pria dan wanita, dengan tingkat mortalita untuk wanita yang sedikit lebih rendah dibanding pria. Metode Lee-Carter juga digunakan untuk memprakirakan tingkat fertilita, dan didapatkan hasil bahwa fertilita di Indonesia terus mengalami penurunan hingga melewati batas tingkat penggantian. Metode Lee-Carter bisa dikembangkan agar menjadi lebih cocok digunakan pada populasi Indonesia. Proyeksi populasi menggunakan prakiraan tingkat mortalita dan fertilita hasil metode Lee-Carter untuk membentuk matriks-matriks Leslie. Berdasarkan proyeksi, populasi Indonesia masih akan terus berkembang hingga tahun 2050. Laju perkembangan ini akan melambat dari tahun ke tahun akibat penurunan tingkat fertilita. Secara umum, Indonesia akan mengalami populasi yang menua. / Population is an important part of a nation. Thorough planning is required to make sure the population of a nation grows well. Part of this planning involves the number of population in the future. Population growth is affected by various demographic components. Lee-Carter method is a statistical method developed to analyze and forecast these demographic components. Lee-Carter method breaks demographic components into component of age and component of time using eigenvalue decomposition. The demographic component can then be forecasted by forecasting the component of time in the future. Leslie matrix is developed to employ these demographic components in projecting the population. Leslie matrix simplify the demographic components by turning it into a single matrix. This thesis utilize both of these methods to project the population of Indonesia up to year 2050. Through Lee-Carter method, it can be seen that the mortality rate of Indonesian population will keep on decreasing. The decrease applies to both male and female population, with the female having slightly lower mortality rate. Lee-Carter method is also utilized to forecast fertility rate, and it is found that fertility rate in Indonesia keeps on dropping, going below the replacement rate. Lee-Carter method could be improved further to suit the Indonesian population better. Based on the projection, the population of Indonesia will still be growing up to year 2050. The rate of this growth will decelerate over the years. Overall, Indonesia will undergo an aging population.

Item Type: Thesis (Bachelor)
Creators:
CreatorsNIMEmail
Utomo, Vincent HartantoNIM00000015083UNSPECIFIED
Contributors:
ContributionContributorsNIDN/NIDKEmail
Thesis advisorMargaretha, HelenaNIDN0312057504helena.margaretha@uph.edu
Thesis advisorFerdinand, Ferry VincenttiusNIDN0323059001ferry.vincenttius@uph.edu
Additional Information: SK 112-15 UTO p 2019 ; 31001000244682
Uncontrolled Keywords: Population; projection; Lee-Carter; Leslie; demography
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Divisions: University Subject > Current > Faculty/School - UPH Karawaci > Faculty of Science and Technology > Mathematics
Current > Faculty/School - UPH Karawaci > Faculty of Science and Technology > Mathematics
Depositing User: Users 3 not found.
Date Deposited: 10 Nov 2020 04:25
Last Modified: 31 Oct 2023 03:53
URI: http://repository.uph.edu/id/eprint/12117

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