Model aktuaria untuk analisis beban ekonomi di Amerika Serikat, Australia, India, Indonesia, Kanada, dan Taiwan akibat COVID-19 = Analysis of economic burden of COVID-19 in United States, Australia, India, Indonesia, Canada, and Taiwan using actuarial-based conceptual model

Hadianto, Deandra Isabelle (2021) Model aktuaria untuk analisis beban ekonomi di Amerika Serikat, Australia, India, Indonesia, Kanada, dan Taiwan akibat COVID-19 = Analysis of economic burden of COVID-19 in United States, Australia, India, Indonesia, Canada, and Taiwan using actuarial-based conceptual model. Bachelor thesis, Universitas Pelita Harapan.

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Abstract

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) merupakan penyakit yang disebabkan oleh virus Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), yaitu virus yang menyerang sistem pernapasan manusia. Penyakit ini telah resmi diumumkan sebagai pandemi global oleh WHO. Kasus penyakit yang terus meningkat menimbulkan dampak berkelanjutan dan signifikan pada berbagai negara, terutama pada sektor ekonomi. Pandemi COVID-19 memberi dampak ekonomi yang berbeda-beda untuk setiap negara. Penelitian ini menghitung estimasi beban ekonomi yang disebabkan oleh COVID-19 dari enam negara dengan situasi pandemi yang berbeda yaitu Amerika Serikat, Australia, India, Indonesia, Kanada, dan Taiwan. Estimasi beban ekonomi didapatkan dari analisis Cost-of-Illness (COI) dengan pendekatan aktuaria. Analisis COI digunakan untuk menentukan variabel biaya yang dihitung, kemudian perhitungan biaya didapatkan dengan model aktuaria yaitu model multiple state, estimator Nelson-Aalen, Kolmogorov’s forward equation, manfaat asuransi dan anuitas, serta premi bruto dengan prinsip equivalence principle. Pada penelitian ini juga dilihat hubungan antara mobilitas dengan nilai dari beban ekonomi menggunakan model regresi berganda. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa faktor yang mempengaruhi beban biaya pada suatu negara adalah tingkat prevalensi penyakit dan lama masa sakit, tingkat kesembuhan penyakit, jumlah spesimen tes, serta rata-rata pendapatan. Didapatkan estimasi beban ekonomi satu tahun dari COVID-19 berkisar dari 20.5 juta hingga 293.5 milyar USD, dengan Taiwan merupakan yang terendah dan Amerika yang tertinggi. Selain itu, model regresi berganda menunjukkan adanya hubungan antara mobilitas dengan nilai dari beban ekonomi untuk semua negara dalam penelitian terkecuali Taiwan. / Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a respiratory disease caused by infection with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus strain. This disease outbreak has been officially labeled as pandemic by WHO. The dramatically increasing number of cases of COVID-19 has affected many countries significantly. Different countries have different ability to respond to the economic impact during the pandemic. This research will estimate the economic burden of COVID-19 in six countries with different pandemic situation: United States, Australia, India, Indonesia, Canada, and Taiwan. The method used in this research is Cost-of-Illness (COI) analysis using actuarial-based conceptual model. COI analysis will determine the cost variables. Calculation of the economic burden will be conducted using the actuarial models such as multiple state models, Nelson-Aalen estimator, Kolmogorov’s forward equation, insurance benefit, annuity, and gross premium using the equivalence principle technique. This research will also build a multiple regression model to picture the relationship between mobility and the amount of economic burden. The results show that prevalence rate, duration of illness, recovery rate, number of test specimens, and average income are the factors that affect the economic burden of a country. The estimated one-year economic burden of COVID-19 ranges from 20.5 million to 293.5 billion USD, with Taiwan being the lowest and United States the greatest. Furthermore, the multiple regression model shows the correlation between mobility and the amount of economic burden except for Taiwan.

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