Taslim, Deddy Gunawan (2023) A Comparative study of autoregressive integrated moving average and long short-term memory in forecasting volatile time series data. Masters thesis, Universitas Pelita Harapan.
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Abstract
Forecasting is an essential subject in economics and business. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) has been extensively used despite its weaknesses, from requiring a minimum number of data points to the assumed linearity of data, which are not always feasible in business data. Therefore, ARIMA is unable to predict well with volatile data. With recent advancements, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) shows potential to address such weaknesses.
This research is aimed to identify the effect of the number of short and long data points of the time series data, as well as a model that is more suitable for handling volatile data due to missing values. Performance metrics used are the model accuracy measured with RMSE and the model run-time performance measured with the Python Timeit library.
This research concluded that LSTM (RMSE 0.037618) is more accurate than ARIMA (RMSE 0.062667) in a dataset of 60 data points and it is reverted in a longer dataset of 228 data points (RMSE of ARIMA 0.006949 to LSTM 0.036025). While in the case of missing values, LSTM outperforms ARIMA, although both models have decreased accuracy if the number of missing values is increased. In terms of run-time performance, ARIMA is significantly faster than LSTM.
Item Type: | Thesis (Masters) |
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Creators: | Creators NIM Email ORCID Taslim, Deddy Gunawan NIM01679210019 deddy.taslim@gmail.com UNSPECIFIED |
Contributors: | Contribution Contributors NIDN/NIDK Email Thesis advisor Murwantara, I Made NIDN0302057304 made.murwantara@uph.edu |
Uncontrolled Keywords: | ARIMA ; LSTM ; time series ; forecasting ; volatile |
Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science |
Divisions: | University Subject > Current > Faculty/School - UPH Karawaci > School of Information Science and Technology > Master of Informatics Current > Faculty/School - UPH Karawaci > School of Information Science and Technology > Master of Informatics |
Depositing User: | Users 23168 not found. |
Date Deposited: | 01 Aug 2023 00:51 |
Last Modified: | 01 Aug 2023 00:51 |
URI: | http://repository.uph.edu/id/eprint/57126 |