Nasution, Arsya Husin Saputra (2018) Konsumsi energi listrik sebagai prediktor return saham sektor manufaktur di bei. Masters thesis, Universitas Pelita Harapan.
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Abstract
Electrical energy holds a key role in running the economy of a country. The
influence of electric energy consumption towards the economy is very intriguing
to investigate further on its casualty relationship upon stock return as a
macroeconomic factor. Its strength factor on predicting stock returns has created a
hole where research continues to grow within the fundamental factors of a
company in recent industrialization era. The purpose of this study is to determine
the relation and predictive of electrical energy on stock returns and investigate
significant influence between other variabels (GDP, inflation and bond) and
energy consumption, as well as the comparison among them.
The research model is a non-structural form, because the characteristic of
macroeconomic variable which can not be distinguished in a priori and not
stationary at level. So this study gives the portion of all variables as endogenous
variables in monthly time series data sample within the period of 2011 - 2017. By
looking at the requirements, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is expected
to accommodate dynamic and fluctuating macroeconomic variable problems.
Based on the initial hypotheses, the results of this research will show that
electrical energy consumption has a significant negative impact on stock return
manufacturing sector in the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) with an R2 of 45.6%.
And its prediction of electrical energy consumption on stock return of
manufacturing sector in one year is more accurate than any other macroeconomic
variabels with RMSE 0.00684. The effect is countercyclical, whereas the higher
the electrical energy consumption the lower the stock return of the manufacturing
sector will be. / Energi listrik merupakan salah satu bahan baku pokok dalam menjalankan roda
perekonomian suatu negara. Pengaruh konsumsi energi listrik bagi
perekonomian menimbulkan hal yang patut untuk diteliti lebih jauh hubungan
kausalitas terhadap return saham sebagai faktor makroekonomi. Kekuatan
prediksinya terhadap return saham menjadi celah penelitian yang masih
dieksplorasi dari faktor fundamental perusahaan di era industrialisasi sekarang.
Tujuan penelitian ini adalah mengetahui hubungan dan prediksi konsumsi energi
listrik terhadap return saham serta perbandingan pengaruh signifikan terhadap
variabel lain seperti Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB), inflasi dan obligasi.
Model penelitian yang dikembangkan merupakan non-struktural karena
karakteristik variabel makroekonomi belum dapat dibedakan secara apriori dan
tidak stasioner pada tingkat level. Sehingga penelitian ini memberikan porsi
semua variabel sebagai variabel endogen pada sampel data time series bulanan
periode tahun 2011 - 2017. Dengan melihat kebutuhan tersebut Vector Error
Correction Model (VECM) diharapkan mengakomodasi permasalahan variabel
makroekonomi yang bersifat dinamis dan fluktuatif.
Berdasarkan hipotesa yang telah dikembangkan, maka hasil penelitiannya
sebagai berikut konsumsi energi listrik berpengaruh signifikan negatif terhadap
return saham sektor manufaktur di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) dengan nilai R2
sebesar 45,6%. Dan kekuatan prediksi konsumsi energi listrik terhadap return
saham sektor manufaktur dalam satu tahun lebih baik dibanding variabel
makroekonomi lainnya dengan nilai RMSE 0.02123. Semakin besar konsumsi
energi listrik akan mengurangi return saham sektor manufaktur yang bersifat
countercyclical
Item Type: | Thesis (Masters) |
---|---|
Creators: | Creators NIM Email ORCID Nasution, Arsya Husin Saputra NIM00000026552 UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED |
Contributors: | Contribution Contributors NIDN/NIDK Email Thesis advisor Sitorus, Tarmiden UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED |
Additional Information: | T 19-16 NAS k |
Uncontrolled Keywords: | stock return ; electrical energy consumption ; Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) ; prediction |
Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD28 Management. Industrial Management |
Divisions: | University Subject > Current > Faculty/School - UPH Karawaci > Business School > Master of Management Current > Faculty/School - UPH Karawaci > Business School > Master of Management |
Depositing User: | Users 18 not found. |
Date Deposited: | 20 May 2021 02:24 |
Last Modified: | 21 Jun 2022 04:28 |
URI: | http://repository.uph.edu/id/eprint/27568 |